MEDIUM-TO-LONG-TERM TRENDS OF THE PENSION AND SOCIO-HEALTHCARE SYSTEM- FORECASTS OF THE
GENERAL ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT OF THE STATE UPDATED AS AT 2017
Every year, the RGS State General Accounting Department draws up a report in which it
illustrates the medium-to-long-term expected trends of the pension and socio-health system.
Such expected trends are analysed on the basis of the forecasts made using the RGS models.
Report no 18 illustrates the medium-to-long-term forecasts elaborated using models updated as at
May 2017 following the publication, announced in the 2017 DEF, of the new ISTAT demographic
forecasts in late April 2017 which are an integral part of the baseline national scenario, and the
new demographic and macroeconomic scenario defined at the European level for the new round of
forecasts of age-related public expenditure (EPC-WGA baseline scenario) received at the end of May
These medium-to-long-term forecasts, that update those contained in the specific sections of the
2017 DEF, were published in June 2017 as “Preview” of this Report, that is also characterized by
the usual contents which are listed below.
The main contents of the Report are:
- the medium-to-long-term forecasts of public expenditure for pensions, health and long-term care
(LTC) in relation to the GDP, developed on the basis of scenarios defined at the national level
(baseline national scenario) and at the European level (EPC-WGA baseline scenario).
- Illustration of the new medium-to-long-term forecasts defined at national level (ISTAT
demographic forecasts based on the 2016 data) and at the European level (EPC-WGA scenario for the
next round of 2018 forecasts);
- A description of the updated procedures with special regard to the review of the short-term
growth forecasts and reconciliation with the demographic and macroeconomic hypotheses underlying
the forecast scenarios defined at national and European level;
- A description of the eligibility criteria for having access to the pension regime, updated in
relation to the new ISTAT demographic forecasts, based on 2016 data;
- Evaluation of the financial effects of the overall cycle of reforms adopted since 2004;
- analysis of the effects of the updated medium-to-long-term forecast scenarios on the
expenditure/GDP ratio and on the public debt/GDP ratio;
- description of the automatisms of the public pension system with respect to the median life
- evaluation of the financial effects of the reviewed transformation coefficients and of the
updated eligibility criteria for having access to the pension regime with respect to life
- analysis of the distribution effects of the public pension system;
- analysis of the gross and net replacement rates of compulsory and complementary social
- forecasts of public spending for health and for LTC made using the pure ageing and reference
- illustration of the activities involved in classifying health spending according to the System
of Health Accounts (SHA) criteria, with reference to the health component for LTC;
- a broad sensitivity analysis aimed at measuring the impact of alternative hypotheses of the
variables of the demographic and macroeconomic scenario;
- a description of the progress of the survey of socio-health activities of the municipalities
and presentation of some of the results;
- forecasts of the overall expenditure for cash social benefits and of the short term health
expenditure contained in the 2017 DEF (Section II – Analysis and trends of public finance and
Section I – 2017 Update of the Stability Programme;
- description of the regulatory framework governing the benefits being forecast and of other
social benefits in cash.
The ‘Notes Updating Report no 18’ illustrates the forecasts of the pension and socio-health
system updated on the basis of the short-term macroeconomic hypotheses contained in the Notes
Updating the 2017 DEF.